Diagrams commissioned for the paper: *The Operational Loops of a Pandemic.* by T. D. Sampson and J. Parikka.
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\begin{tikzpicture}[>={Stealth[scale=2]}, % arrow head
shorten > = 3pt,
node distance = 1cm and 2cm,
el/.style = {inner sep=10pt, align=center},
state/.style = {minimum size=2.5cm, circle, draw=black, fill=white}, %node styles
plain/.style = {rectangle, fill=white, font=\large},
node/.style = {draw, circle, inner sep=5, font=\large},
phantom/.style = {rectangle, inner sep=0.1cm, font=\large}
% every label/.append style = {font=\tiny}, unused node labels
\node (models) [node, align=center] {Models\\\&\\Simulations};
\node (futures3) [plain, above=of models, xshift=-2cm] {Thousands};
\node (futures2) [plain, above=of models, yshift=-0.7cm, xshift=-2cm] {of};
\node (futures1) [plain, left=of models, yshift=1.4cm, xshift=1.4cm] {Futures};
\node (fold) [phantom, above=of models, yshift=2cm] {Fold};
\node (fold2) [phantom, right=of models, yshift=2cm] {};
(models) edge [in=-140,out=-110,max distance=1.5cm,loop] node[el,below] {Runs and re-runs} (models)
(models) edge [] (futures1.east)
(models) edge [] (futures2.east)
(models) edge [] (futures3.east);
\draw[->] (models) -- (fold.south) -- (fold2.center);
% \node (pull) [plain, above=of waves, xshift=-1cm] {PULL};
% \node (pull) [plain, above=of waves, xshift=1cm] {PUSH};
% \draw [dashed] (0,1) -- (0,3);
% \draw [dashed] (0,-1) -- (0,-3);
% % Connections
% \path[->, out=-70, in=-170] (pasts) edge (waves);
% \path[->, out=70, in=-190] (futures) edge (waves);
% \path[->, out=15, in=-180] (waves) edge (natural);
% \path[->, out=5, in=-180] (waves) edge (govt);
% \path[->, out=-5, in=-180] (waves) edge (individual);
% \path[->, out=-15, in=-180] (waves) edge (death);
% \path[<->, >={Stealth[scale=1]}, out=0, in=0, looseness=3]
% (natural.east) edge (govt.east)
% (govt.east) edge (individual.east)
% (individual.east) edge (death.east);
% Loop back
% \path[->, shorten < = 10pt] (natural) edge [bend right=45] (pasts);
% \path[->, shorten < = 10pt] (death) edge [bend left=45] (futures.south);
% \path[->]
% (pasts.east) edge [bend right=5] (waves.west)
% (futures.east) edge [bend left=5] (waves.west);