Diagrams commissioned for the paper: *The Operational Loops of a Pandemic.* by T. D. Sampson and J. Parikka.
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\begin{tikzpicture}[>={Stealth[scale=2]}, % arrow head
shorten > = 3pt,
node distance = 1cm and 2cm,
el/.style = {inner sep=6pt, align=center, color=white},
state/.style = {minimum size=2.5cm, circle, draw=black, fill=white}, %node styles
plain/.style = {rectangle},
node/.style = {draw, circle, inner sep=5},
node_initial/.style = {draw, circle, inner sep=2},
phantom/.style = {rectangle, inner sep=0.1cm},
->-/.style={decoration={
markings,
mark=at position #1 with {\arrow{>}}},postaction={decorate}
}
% every label/.append style = {font=\tiny}, unused node labels
]
\node (models) [node, align=center] {Models\\\&\\Simulations};
\node (futures3) [plain, above=of models, xshift=-1.2cm, yshift=0.2cm] {};
\node (futures2) [plain, above=of models, yshift=-0.8cm, xshift=-2.2cm] {};
\node (futures1) [plain, left=of models, yshift=0.7cm, xshift=0.2cm] {};
\node [above=of futures2, xshift=-0.2cm, yshift=-1.3cm, rotate=45] {Thousands of futures};
\node (fold) [phantom, above=of models, align=center, yshift=2cm] {Pick \& Fold};
\node (fold2) [phantom, right=of models, xshift=-1.5cm, yshift=1.5cm] {};
\node (policy) [node, right=of models, align=center, xshift=1cm, yshift=3cm] {Policy\\Measures};
\node (s) [node_initial, label=right:{usceptible}, below=of policy, xshift=0cm , yshift=-2cm] {\textbf{S}};
\node (i) [node_initial, label=right:{nfectious}, below=of s, xshift=-1cm , yshift=0.5cm] {\textbf{I}};
\node (r) [node_initial, label=right:{ecovered}, below=of i, xshift=-1cm , yshift=0.5cm] {\textbf{R}};
\node (d) [node_initial, label=right:{eceased}, below=of r, xshift=-1cm , yshift=0.5cm] {\textbf{D}};
\node (ghostly) [phantom, left=of policy, align=center, xshift=1.2cm, yshift=0.5cm] {Ghostly\\Potential};
% \node (casualties) [node, below=of policy, align=center] {Virus\\Spread};
\path[->, color=green]
(models) edge [in=-140,out=-110,max distance=1.5cm,loop] node[el,below] {Runs and re-runs} (models);
\path[->, color=green, shorten < = -3mm]
(models) edge [] (futures2.south)
(models) edge [] (futures1.east)
(models) edge [] (futures3.east);
\draw[->-=.25, -, color=green, shorten > = 0pt, shorten < = -3mm] (models) -- (fold.south) -- (fold2.center);
\path[->, color=green]
(fold2.center) edge [] (policy)
(policy) edge [bend right=35] (fold.east)
(fold2.center) edge [] node [el, above, sloped] {Produced} (s)
(fold2.center) edge [] (i)
(fold2.center) edge [] (r)
(fold2.center) edge [] (d);
\path[->, color=green, shorten <= 3pt]
(s) edge [] (models)
(i) edge [] (models)
(r) edge [] (models)
(d) edge [] node [el, below, sloped] {Counted} (models);
\end{tikzpicture}