tornado smoothing tests

tornado.py

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import pandas as pd
 import requests
 import matplotlib
 import json
+import numpy as np
 # %%
 
 r = requests.get('https://disease.sh/v3/covid-19/historical/fr?lastdays=all')
@@ -11,22 +12,35 @@ x = r.json()
 
 #%%
 df = pd.DataFrame(x['timeline'])
-
+df = df.reset_index()
 #%% convert index to datetime, messing things up
 # df.index = pd.to_datetime(df.index, dayfirst=True)
 
-
 # %%
 df['daily_deaths'] = df['deaths'].diff()
 df['daily_deaths_avg'] = df['daily_deaths'].rolling(7).mean()
-df['death_change'] = df['daily_deaths'].diff()
+df['death_change'] = df['daily_deaths_avg'].diff()
+
+# %%
+df.fillna(value=0, inplace=True)
+poly = np.polyfit(df.index.values, df['daily_deaths_avg'].values, 5)
+poly_tornado = np.poly1d(poly)(df.index.values)
+
+# %%
+df['tornado'] = poly_tornado
+
+# %% Try to smooth the curve with interpolation
+# df['death_change'] = df['death_change'].interpolate(method='cubic')
 
 # %%
-df['death_change'] = df['death_change'].rolling(5).mean()
+#df['death_change'] = df['death_change'].rolling(3).mean()
 
 # %%
 # df.drop(columns=['cases', 'deaths', 'recovered'], inplace=True)
 
+
 #%%
 #df.plot()
-df.plot(x='death_change', y='daily_deaths_avg')
+df.plot(x='death_change', y='daily_deaths_avg')
+
+