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% from this example https://tex.stackexchange.com/questions/305375/how-to-position-labels-at-edges-of-tikz-figures/305391
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\documentclass{article}
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\usepackage{tikz}
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\usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta,positioning}
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\usepackage{geometry}
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\geometry{a4paper, landscape, margin=1cm}
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\pagenumbering{gobble}
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\setlength\parindent{0pt}
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\begin{document}
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{\huge Operational loop of COVID-19}\\
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\\
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David Benqu\'e\\
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\color{red}
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Work in Progress: \today
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\color{black}
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\vspace{3\baselineskip}
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% \section*{Operational loop of COVID-19}
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\begin{tikzpicture}[>={Stealth[scale=2]}, % arrow head
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shorten > = 3pt,
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node distance = 5cm and 4cm,
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el/.style = {inner sep=5pt, font=\normalsize, align=center, sloped},
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state/.style = {minimum size=2.5cm, circle, draw=black, fill=white}, %node styles
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sub/.style = {rectangle, xshift=2.5cm}
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% every label/.append style = {font=\tiny}, unused node labels
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]
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\node (simulations) [state, align=center] {Models\\\&\\Simulations};
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\node (data) [state, right=of simulations] {Data};
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\node (virus) [state, left=of simulations, yshift=-3.7cm] {SARS-CoV-2};
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\node (curves) [state,below=of simulations] {Curves};
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\node (policy) [state,below=of data, align=center] {Policy\\Interventions};
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\node (bodies) [state, right=of policy, yshift=3.7cm] {Populations};
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\node (futures1) [sub, left=of simulations,yshift=0.7cm] {Thousands};
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\node (futures2) [sub, left=of simulations] {of};
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\node (futures3) [sub, left=of simulations, yshift=-0.7cm] {Futures};
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\path[->]
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(simulations) edge [in=110,out=70,max distance=1.5cm,loop] node[el,above] {Runs and re-runs} (simulations)
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(virus) edge [in=110,out=70,max distance=1.5cm,loop] node[el, above] {Mutates} (virus)
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(virus) edge [bend left=5] node[el, above, pos=0.15] {Infects} (bodies)
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(bodies) edge [bend left=5] node[el, below, pos=0.15] {Antibodies} (virus)
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(bodies) edge [bend right=10] node [el, above] {Counted} (data)
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(data) edge [bend right=10] node[el,above] {Basis for} (simulations)
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(simulations) edge [bend right=10] node[el, below] {Produce more\\Look like} (data)
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(simulations) edge [bend right=10] node[el, below] {Represented as} (curves)
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(data) edge [bend left=10] node[el, below, pos=0.2] {Represented as} (curves)
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(policy) edge [bend left=10] node[el, below, pos=0.2] {Assessed with} (simulations)
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(simulations) edge [bend left=10] node[el, above, pos=0.3] {Basis for} (policy)
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(policy) edge [bend right=10] node[el, below] {Constrain} (bodies)
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(policy) edge [bend right=10] node[el, below] {What gets counted} (data)
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(curves) edge [bend right=10] node[el, below] {Legitimise} (policy)
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(curves) edge [bend left=10] node[el, below] {Produce as shape\\e.g. waves, peaks, etc} (virus)
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(simulations) edge [] node [el] {} (futures1)
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(simulations) edge [] node [el] {} (futures2)
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(simulations) edge [] node [el] {} (futures3);
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\end{tikzpicture}
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\vspace{3\baselineskip}
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Inspired by:\\
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Dinno, Alexis. 2007. `Loop Analysis of Causal Feedback in Epidemiology: An Illustration Relating to Urban Neighborhoods and Resident Depressive Experiences`. \emph{Social Science \& Medicine} 65 (10): 2043–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2007.06.018.
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\end{document}
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